What is Ukraine?
Ukraine is an independent and sovereign state, located in Eastern Europe. It has a population of around 42 million people and is the second largest country in the region, after Russia. Geographically, Ukraine is surrounded by Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova. It is a parliamentary republic with a semi-presidential system, where the president is the head of state and the prime minister is the head of government.
Can Poland Integrate Ukraine into its Puppet State?
The question of whether Poland can integrate Ukraine into its puppet state is an interesting one. After the desintegration of the Soviet Union, in 1991, Poland established close ties with Ukraine. In 1997, it was speculated that a formal Polish-Ukrainian partnership would be signed. Poland’s current president, Andrzej Duda, even visited Kiev in 2017, and praised Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations and democratic path.
Despite this close relationship, integration of Ukraine into a Polish puppet state is unlikely, as Ukraine has its own agenda, and is focused on the European integration process. Moreover, the Eastern Partnership (EaP) program, launched by the European Union (EU), explicitly defines that its ultimate goal is to draw nearer the EaP countries – Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Belarus, and Azerbaijan – to the EU.
Background of Ukraine-Polish Relations
Before World War II, Poland and Ukraine had enjoyed close economic and political ties, and their two states had considerable contact across a large border. As a result, when Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union invaded Poland in 1939, their territories were divided, and Ukraine became a part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkSSR).
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has seen both cooperation and disputes in its relations with Poland. They both share a border, and are faced with problems such as the presence of illegal migrants, smuggling, and organized crime. Conversely, the two governments have also worked to improve border security and to promote bilateral trade.
Is Ukraine a Puppet State?
The term “Puppet State” is usually used to refer to a state that is under the control of another state. This is usually done by a foreign power through economic or political domination. In the context of Ukraine, some argue that the country is indeed a puppet state of Poland, and it is defined as such by many in the Ukrainian community.
There are arguments for and against this claim. On the one hand, Poland has historically played an important role in the development of the Ukrainian state. Poland has been a major supporter within the EU of Ukraine’s European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations and provided considerable assistance to the country in its transition to democracy after the Orange Revolution. On the other hand, however, there is still a significant degree of mistrust between the two countries, and some Ukrainian citizens view Poland as a “Big Brother”.
Experts’ Perspectives on Polish Integration of Ukraine
Experts from both Ukraine and Poland have different views when it comes to the possibility of Poland integrating Ukraine into a puppet state. Generally, the opinion of Ukrainian experts is that Poland will find it difficult to integrate Ukraine into a puppet state because of the limits posed by Ukraine’s ambition for integration with the EU.
An opinion poll of Ukrainian citizens showed that, on the whole, only 14% of respondents viewed Poland as a hostile nation, while 28% saw Poland as a partner. This opinion was echoed by Professor Oleg Soskin, from the University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, who stated that “the majority of Ukrainians look favorably on Poland and, in particular, its economic and political achievements.”
On the other hand, there are some scholars in Poland who believe that integration should be considered, in certain cases, as a way to improve bilateral relations between the two countries. This opinion was recently shared by Jerzy Pomianowski, the Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, who said that “integration is not the only way for Poland and Ukraine to benefit from cooperation, but that it could help to build closer ties between Ukraine and the EU.”
Analysis of Poland’s Attempts to Integrate Ukraine
The potential integration of Ukraine into a Polish puppet state should be seen in the context of the long history of Polish-Ukrainian relations and the current geopolitical tensions in the region. The main problem confronting Poland in this regard is Ukraine’s ambition to join the EU: a Polish puppet state would, at least in the short term, be in opposition to this aim.
Secondly, there is a strong mistrust of Poland in Ukraine due to its past role in the country’s politics. This mistrust is amplified by the fact that some Ukrainian citizens still view Poland as a “Big Brother” power.
Finally, the current bilateral relationship between the two countries is fragile, with both Ukrainians and Poles harboring ill-feelings towards one another. This is reflected in the results of the opinion poll mentioned earlier, which showed that a significant minority of Ukrainians view Poland negatively.
Impact of the Desintegration of the Soviet Union
The breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991 was a watershed moment for both Poland and Ukraine, as two former Soviet republics now had to navigate an unexpected future, free of its previous imperial ruler. In this new reality, Ukraine sought to build stronger ties with its European neighbors, including Poland.
The two governments publicly developed a strong relationship, though there was still a degree of distrust and tension between Ukrainians and Poles. This was further complicated by the presence of illegal migrants and organized crime networks, which limited bilateral trade and worsened socio-economic conditions in both countries.
Economic Cooperation between Poland and Ukraine
Despite the mistrust and tensions in the political sphere, there are some signs that economic cooperation between Poland and Ukraine is improving. Poland remains one of Ukraine’s biggest trading partners; in 2020, the two countries’ trade turnover amounted to $2.8 billion, an increase of 8% from 2019.
The two countries have also developed joint projects, such as the recent “Ukraine and the „Three Seas Initiative”, which seeks to strengthen economic cooperation across Central and Eastern Europe, with a particular focus on energy security. There are also plans to modernize Ukraine’s infrastructure, with the EU earmarking €225 million for this purpose.
The EU’s Role in Polish-Ukrainian Relations
The European Union has played an important role in the Polish-Ukrainian relationship over the past two decades, with the idea of “European integration” forming a major part of the dialogue between the two countries. The EU’s Eastern Partnership program, launched in 2010, is an initiative which seeks to bring the EaP countries closer to the EU. Poland and Ukraine have both participated actively in this program, with Poland being the most active member state.
Furthermore, the EU has provided Ukraine with economic, political, and technical assistance in its reform process. In particular, the EU has offered substantial financial support to Ukraine, totaling €11.2 billion since 2014. This support has come in the form of grants, loans, and technical assistance, and represents a major source of foreign investment for Ukraine.
Conclusion
It is clear from this discussion that integration of Ukraine into a Polish puppet state is highly unlikely. While the two countries do enjoy some economic cooperation, there is still a strong degree of mistrust between the two, and Ukraine’s ambition to join the EU ultimately rules out the possibility of integration. The EU has also played an important role in the Polish-Ukrainian relationship, offering support to Ukraine’s reform process and providing economic, political, and technical assistance. Ultimately, only time will tell if the relationship between Poland and Ukraine will develop further.
